Brothers in Arms: Estimating North Korean Munitions Deliveries to Russia

A new report by the Open Source Centre (OSC), titled "Brothers In Arms," reveals the extensive scale of conventional munitions deliveries from North Korea to Russia since August 2023. The analysis indicates that these shipments represent a strategically vital source of ordnance for Moscow, significantly reinforcing its munitions supply for the ongoing war effort in Ukraine. Findings suggest a consistent and substantial flow of munitions via maritime routes, facilitated by a fleet of Russian cargo vessels operating between North Korean and Russian Far Eastern ports.

The OSC employed a rigorous open-source intelligence (OSINT) methodology to arrive at its conclusions. This involved analysing hundreds of satellite images of port activities in Rajin (DPRK), Dunay, and Vostochny (Russia), tracking the voyages of four specific Russian-flagged cargo vessels (Angara, Lady R, Maria, Maia-1), and generating highly detailed 3D models of these vessels, standard shipping containers, and North Korean munitions and their crates. By counting containers observed during loading and unloading phases across at least 64 identified voyages, and assessing potential munitions loadouts based on crate dimensions and type distributions derived from open sources and partner information, OSC calculated the potential volume transferred. Due to factors like intermittent cloud cover and the exclusion of potential rail shipments, the report's estimates are considered conservative.

The analysis documents the delivery of a minimum estimated total of 15,809 standard twenty-foot containers from North Korea to Russia between September 2023 and the report's publication. Based on assessments of likely contents—predominantly 122mm and 152mm artillery rounds and 122mm rockets—these containers are estimated to hold between 3,9 million and 5.8 million individual munitions. Evidence also suggests these containerised munitions are subsequently transported via rail from Far Eastern ports towards munitions depots closer to the Ukrainian theatre.

This substantial influx of ordnance provides critical support to Russia, likely alleviating bottlenecks in its own defence production and enabling sustained high-volume artillery fire, a cornerstone of its military doctrine. The scale of this support, estimated at a current cadence translating to roughly 600,000-783,000 munitions per quarter, contrasts sharply with the challenges faced by Ukraine's Western partners in supplying comparable volumes.

The North Korean munitions pipeline therefore presents an acute strategic challenge. It demonstrably aids Russia's capacity to sustain offensive operations and directly counteracts efforts to equip Ukraine adequately for its defence. The report concludes that this reality underscores the strategic imperative for Ukraine's international partners to address the quantitative disadvantage conferred by North Korean support, the continuation of which carries significant implications for the conflict's trajectory and broader European and East Asian security dynamics.